The 2015 election is less than two years away but the polity is already heating up. Is this a healthy development?
The role Chief Edwin Clark and the Ijaw are playing in Jonathan’s bid for second term is unfortunate. They know that they lack the number to make Jonathan President, but the diplomacy that they should (apply) in approaching this issue is lacking. They are rather being combative. Going by the posturing of Chief Clark and his cheerleaders, the battle line has been drawn between (Olusegun) Obasanjo and the President. We are not saying that Obasanjo is God, but he remains a factor that if he cannot achieve much, he can at least do a lot of damage. How Jonathan manages the unfolding drama will have a lot to speak about his political sagacity. He must reach out to new friends. The South-East people are very desirous of running for the Presidency. How Jonathan plays his politics in the light of all these regional interests and aspirations that have found expression in some political parties will determine whether PDP will go down with him or prevail. Jonathan needs also to rein in Clark because the Ijaw do not have what it takes to sustain him in office. Now that there is this strong regional sentiment everywhere, Igbo vote is no longer guaranteed for him except he moves fast.
Don’t you think that Chief Clark is trying to prove a point that if those who swore to make Nigeria ungovernable for Jonathan are doing so, the Ijaw also have the capacity to do the same for any other President?
That is what I am saying. They lack the capacity to do so. Forget about the militancy in the Niger Delta, after all, (late late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua) was able to contain it through amnesty. If you offer those boys what makes them comfortable, they are not going to die for anybody. They can only die for themselves if you neglect them. So anybody coming in can also apply the Yar’Adua approach to calm that area down if they think that is what they can apply to make governance difficult. It was not Clark that deployed those militants and it was not him that reined them in. It was the carrot offered by the late president Yar’Adua. In terms of number, they lack the number. So, somebody who is politically sagacious would not adopt Clark’s method. An old adage says you stoop to conquer. In their situation, it is a question of stooping to conquer. If you want to introduce balance of terror in this matter, perhaps it should be the Obasanjo method, where he would use all the agencies of government that perpetrate terror to go intimidating people with their records.
All of these people doing these things have criminal records that they could be confronted with. But I don’t even recommend that to Jonathan because it is not in his nature, to go after people because of power. There are better methods he could use. Those methods are not to be freely discussed on the pages of the newspapers. Jonathan is not reaching out.
What do you make of the crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party and its possible implications on our polity?
Regional sentiment has since overtaken the feeling for nationalism. The Northerners feel strongly that it is their turn. Rather than not go for it, they better form another party to go for it. So the North is determined to contest for the Presidency in 2015. And the North has proved by what they have done that the political elite of the North still feel uncomfortable with the leadership of (Maj.-Gen. Mohammadu) Buhari. Otherwise, Buhari has already presented himself as a rallying point for the North. But that is not acceptable to the northern political elite. So, for the North, it is the Presidency or nothing. For the South-West, it is the ultimate interest of the South-West, but they are not strongly looking at going for the Presidency because of Obasanjo’s recent eight years in that office. Jonathan has been trying to please practically everybody without pleasing anybody at all.
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